What is a closing line in sports betting?

A closing line means the last odds set by the bookies before the sports event starts. Today we're going to clarify why this indicator is important for bettors and how it can help to reach better results while placing bets. 

Why is the closing line important?

Better predictions. The closing line is considered the most accurate, as it includes all the information available at the time of the event. Having this information, bettor can make better prediction for the final result of this sports event.  

Checking the strategy. Many professional bettors use the closing line value as a benchmark. If your bet is placed on odds that are more profitable than the closing line, this may indicate that you have found value and made the right choice.

Analyzing of Line Movements. Comparing the opening odds to the closing line can help you understand how the market has reacted to changes in information about an event. For example, a sharp drop in the odds on one side could indicate a significant change in public opinion or unexpected news, such as a player injury.

Let’s see what it can look like through the following example:

Suppose that the bookmaker is initially priced at 2.00 for Team A (Chelsea) to win the match. As the match approaches and new data become available, the market changes and by the time the match starts, the closing line for Chelsea to win is 1.80. This could indicate that many bettors believe Chelsea will win and the bookmakers have adjusted the odds to balance their risk.

Does using a closing line assure success in betting?

Using of closing line can surely increase your winning chances, but does not guarantee getting profit. There are only a few betting systems that can assure you a stable income not only in the long run but at the moment. 

Surebets are among such systems. It’s an arbitrage situations that arises due to the odds differences in the betting lines and allows bettors to place bets in a way that they get profit no matter the final result of the sports event.

Example: 

Suppose we have an EPL clash Arsenal vs Everton. Two different bookmakers set their odds for the total of scored goals:

Bookmaker 1: TU 2.5 - 1.75, TO 2.5 - 2.16
Bookmaker 2: TU 2.5 - 2.07, TO 2.5 - 1.80

In this case, we need to place bets on TO 2.5 at Bookmaker 1 and TU 2.5 at Bookmaker 2 (eg, €100 on every outcome). There are two variants of further scenarios:

The match ends with 2 or less goals scored. In this case, we get 100*2.07 = 207 - 200 - €7 net profit. 

The match ends with 3 or more goals scored. In this case, we get 100*2.16 = 216 - 200 = €16 net profit. 

Good enough, isn’t it? However, it’s important to understand that searching of surebets is not the easiest process and that’s why many bettors use reliable surebet software like BetBurger, which takes over the process of searching and calculating arbitrage situations.

To sum it up

The closing line help bettors to make better predictions and analyze line movements. However, you can reach success only in case of using closing value in combination with an effective betting strategy.

Cover Photo by Johann Walter Bantz on Unsplash